What is the Dunning-Kruger Effect?

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We’re all susceptible to cognitive bias. This is when we make errors in judgement which affect our ability to evaluate situations and make informed decisions. You can read our post on cognitive biases for more.

One cognitive bias we have yet to touch upon is the Dunning-Kruger Effect. This happens when we overestimate either the depth and breadth of our own knowledge or the extent of our abilities. In the workplace, this can end up fostering mistrust among colleagues, and lead to poor decision-making and even toxic or dangerous working conditions. This is all bound to have a detrimental effect on our productivity.

How can you mitigate the negative results of the Dunning-Kruger effect? Self-awareness is key, but there are also multiple ways you can set your team up for success, including creating a space in working environments for vulnerability and failure.

In the rest of this piece, we’ll take a closer look at the Dunning-Kruger effect and how it can affect us all. Later, we’ll discuss ways to mitigate the Dunning-Kruger effect to help ensure that we can continue making wise decisions, and fostering solid relationships in the workplace so we can collaborate effectively and remain productive. Before we get deep into the effect itself, it’s necessary to explain what cognitive bias is.

Without further ado, let’s jump in.

What is a Cognitive Bias?

A cognitive bias is an erroneous judgement we make about something. Such judgements are usually subconscious. People cling to their beliefs and preferences even when new information challenges those beliefs and preconceived ideas. They remain and inform the decisions we make.

We can all be affected by cognitive biases, which can affect our thought processes in various ways.

Confirmation bias, for example, occurs when we seek out and remember information that supports what we already believe, even if other available information directly contradicts our beliefs.

Availability bias happens when we base our decisions mainly on our recent experiences, even if said experiences are not particularly relevant to the decision at hand.

One way to think of cognitive biases is as shortcuts our brains take to simplify processing the vast amounts of information and stimuli we are exposed to in our everyday lives.

What is the Dunning-Kruger Effect?

The Dunning-Kruger effect, then, is just another cognitive bias. Two psychologists at Cornell University — Justin Kruger and David Dunning — coined the term in 1999 after conducting a series of 4 studies.

In the studies, participants were tested in the areas of grammar, logic, and humour. During the studies, participants were asked to predict their own performance before they completed the tests. They found that participants who scored in the bottom 25% hugely overestimated their ability and performance. For example, those who finished up in the 12^th percentile estimated their score would be equal to or better than 62% of participants. The disconnect between their estimated performance and their actual score is at the heart of the Dunning-Kruger effect.

This is not to say that only people of lower intelligence are vulnerable to the Dunning-Kruger effect. It can affect all of us, and thereby cause us to make poor decisions which could damage our productivity. After all, we all have something we’re not as competent or practiced at. These are the areas where we’re susceptible to the Dunning-Kruger effect.

Why Does it Happen?

Why, then, are most of us optimistic about our abilities, skills, and knowledge, most particularly in areas in which we should be able to recognise our own incompetence?

According to Dunning and Kruger, we have a ‘dual burden.’ We lack the awareness needed to recognise the fact that we fall short in a given area, so we charge onward regardless and overestimate our abilities.

If you’re inexperienced in a specific area, you don’t have the information you need to be able to differentiate between a good performance and a poor one. Let’s say, for instance, that you’re asked to tell difference between a £200 bottle of wine and a £20 bottle. If you’re not really into wine, are you likely to be able to do it? Probably not, right?

We also tend to exaggerate our abilities because we don’t want to admit that we are incompetent or lack knowledge. Therefore, many of us would rather pretend that we know what we’re doing and show confidence than admit to our inadequacies. After, all confidence is a highly prized quality in both personal and professional environments and helps us get ahead.

Soon, we’ll look at some common criticisms of it, but for now, let’s find out about the harm the Dunning-Kruger effect might do.

What Harm Can the Dunning-Kruger Effect Do?

Despite the fact we all overestimate our abilities on occasion, most of us have a realistic grasp of the extent of our own capabilities.  You probably wouldn’t hasten to volunteer to help if someone on a plane asks for a doctor, just because you happened to watch Grey’s Anatomy.

If that’s the case, is the Dunning- Kruger effect truly harmful?

In fact, this effect can lead to some negative and possibly far-reaching consequences.

Here are the main ones.

• It could lead to poor, ill-informed decision-making – The Dunning-Kruger Effect could lead you to pursue a career you and your talents aren’t suited for or prompt you to volunteer for a project you cannot realistically complete. The ‘dual burden’ created is likely to lead to your making some poor decisions.
• There is a potential for danger – This is especially the case for those in high-risk jobs. If you overestimate your abilities, you could end up placing yourself and others in peril.
• It can sour working relationships and sow mistrust – If you are overconfident too often, your colleagues, supervisor, and manager may start to doubt your ability to perform well in any task. Your unfounded overconfidence will begin to make others more distrustful of you and thus make working with others more difficult. This could potentially be devastating for your productivity. It may also affect how well a team works.

Despite these drawbacks, the Dunning-Kruger effect is sometimes useful. After all, there are times when you need to be self-assured and confident if you want to achieve your goals.  

The Dunning-Kruger Effect and Imposter Syndrome

The Dunning-Kruger effect is in direct opposition to the phenomenon of Imposter Syndrome, where we underestimate our ability and worry that our perceived inadequacies will be exposed.

While they are opposites, we can all experience both. Imposter syndrome typically occurs when we are experts in a certain field or have mastered a particular skill, but start to distrust our own talents and ability regardless.

This is in complete contrast to what happens when the Dunning-Kruger effect is in action.

As with any theory or study, the Dunning-Kruger effect has garnered its fair share of criticism. We’ll talk about some of that criticism next before we move on to ways you can mitigate its impact.

Problems With the Dunning-Kruger Effect

Some sceptics argue that random chance could account for the findings of Dunning and Kruger’s initial study which serves as the foundation of the theory and thus may not happen because of flawed judgement or insight on our part.

By far the biggest problem we have, however, lies in the way we talk about this bias. The derogatory terms used when we talk about this effect can make us feel self-conscious and damage our self-confidence. It is therefore not inconceivable that just the way we talk about the can have a detrimental effect on our productivity.

It also means that pinpointing the Dunning-Kruger effect as the cause of bias can feel like a personal attack on an individual, even though it is something we can all experience, and will likely affect all of us at some point in our lives.

If this effect can happen to us all, it’ll be useful to discuss how we might be able to mitigate its impact in the workplace.

What Can We do About the Dunning-Kruger Effect?

On an individual level, the best antidote to the Dunning-Kruger effect. If you question your assumptions and ask for feedback from your colleagues often, you will be able to get a better grasp of your own strengths and weaknesses.

But what can you do if you manage a team?

Here are a few things you can try.

• Do your best to make every member of your team feel safe and give them room to be vulnerable. That way, people are more likely to admit when they don’t know something.
• Inspire your team to want to learn and improve, and to see mistakes as opportunities to learn. You can help encourage this sort of mindset by providing resources designed to promote learning. These resources can include books, mentoring programmes, courses, and the like.
• Support a variety of skills to increase employee engagement and thereby boost team productivity. People will also feel more valued and put more effort into their work, leading to better results and higher productivity overall. You can read our post on individual and team productivity for more.
• Provide honest, thoughtful feedback that’s designed to help people improve and overcome their weaknesses. You must make people aware of their shortcomings if you want them to improve.

Wrapping Up

Now you’re aware that your brain is wired to take shortcuts and trick you, and have a better understanding of the Dunning-Kruger effect, you can start developing greater self-awareness, so you can mitigate its impact.

When you have a more thorough idea of your strengths and weaknesses, you can seek out roles and projects in which you and your team can excel, so that you will all become more productive and yield better results.

Read our post on 5 more cognitive biases if you want to explore more cognitive biases in some detail.